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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +7.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.8 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$1.41M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$4k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Rockets (-7.5) at 48¢) and the edge is -3.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 50% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 63% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$360.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $163.74M volume · 276,326 trades · since Dec 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$11.44M
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
327d
17932 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.6 | +7.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
 Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
 Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo | LOW BUY Valentin Vacherot @ 99.9¢ | $73.6k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner | LOW BUY Jannik Sinner @ 99.9¢ | $69.9k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
 Ducks vs. Oilers | LOW BUY Ducks @ 42¢ | $30.0k | missed |
 Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW BUY St. Johns Red Storm @ 50¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 54¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Jets vs. Bruins | LOW BUY Bruins @ 56¢ | $24.5k | called |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $115.4k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $102.0k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $82.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $34.7k | excluded |
 Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $125.5k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $140.8k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $19.1k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $88.2k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $73.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Clippers @ 48¢ | $12.2k | called |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $41.5k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $35.0k | called |
 Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW BUY MOUZ @ 44¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 73¢ | $47.6k | excluded |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 37¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
 LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | LOW BUY Anyones Legend @ 83¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
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