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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 5.0 wins, so it did -33.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-33.7 pts
Called / graded
2/9
Expected from price
5.0
Flagged volume
$3.05M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$721k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes at 75¢) and the edge is -41.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 50% · n=7
60–80¢
100% vs 76% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2.19M
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.99M volume · 117 trades · since Jan 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$1.05M
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$1.13M
Closed-position win rate
52%
23 closed
Wallet age · markets
285d
25 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 2 | 5.0 | -33.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 50¢ | $485.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 76¢ | $496.8k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | HIGH BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 75¢ | $298.0k | called |
| Lakers vs. Suns | MED BUY Lakers @ 66¢ | $400.0k | excluded |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $64.8k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $31.4k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 51¢ | $95.9k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 51¢ | $104.1k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $479.0k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | HIGH BUY Patriots @ 66¢ | $399.3k | excluded |
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