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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -9.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-9.5 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$90.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$124.0k
Last 30 days +$80.9k · $2.47M volume · 2,562 trades · since Nov 15, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$124.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
45%
137 closed
Wallet age · markets
708d
135 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.4 | -9.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Bears (-2.5) | LOW BUY Bears @ 55¢ | $24.8k | called |
| Cowboys vs. Packers | LOW BUY Packers @ 49¢ | $24.5k | called |
 UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Umar Nurmagomedov @ 84¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $31.3k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x0dc607…