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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -4.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$719.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$278.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $121.27M volume · 83,717 trades · since Nov 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$24.73M
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$466.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
348d
6248 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -4.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 58¢ | $24.1k | called |
| Nets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 90¢ | $513.9k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $145.6k | missed |
 Chicago State Cougars vs. Mercyhurst Lakers: O/U 129.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 47¢ | $36.3k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe20a15…