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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -5.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-5.1 pts
Called / graded
2/6
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$918.0k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$122k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Ne at 92¢) and the edge is -7.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 22% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$858.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $17.60M volume · 19,810 trades · since Jul 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$861.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
62%
332 closed
Wallet age · markets
465d
294 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +6.4 pts |
| Other | 4 | 0 | 0.4 | -10.9 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x7177a7…