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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -68.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-68.6 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$54.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$40.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $323.3k volume · 144 trades · since Dec 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$36.2k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$76.9k
Closed-position win rate
67%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
303d
6 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -68.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $44.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2d3622…