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0x3b8d…2ce6

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.4 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$1.21M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$25.9k
Last 30 days −$0 · $2.27M volume · 101 trades · since Jan 06, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$25.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
51%
43 closed
Wallet age · markets
291d
50 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy111.0+3.4 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $155.7k
2.1× usual
1% 186d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ $154.3k
2.1× usual
98% 203d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $19.9k1% 209d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $134.8k0% 209d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $19.9k100% 209d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 209d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $31.2k100% 211d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $30.9k0% 211d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $154.5k
2.1× usual
100% 212d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $154.5k
2.1× usual
0% 212d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $154.3k
2.1× usual
100% 217d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $46.3k100% 267d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.1¢ $37.4k97% 288d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 96.6¢ $100.6k97% 288d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢$155.7k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 186d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.5¢$154.3k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 203d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$19.9k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 209d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$134.8k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 209d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$19.9k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 209d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$20.0k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 209d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$31.2k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 211d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$30.9k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 211d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$154.5k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 212d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$154.5k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 212d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$154.3k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 217d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$46.3k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 267d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.1¢$37.4k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 288d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96.6¢$100.6k
MED 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 288d ago

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