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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +10.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+10.7 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$103.7k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$33.8k
Last 30 days −$0 · $19.41M volume · 10,824 trades · since Dec 08, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$35.7k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$791
Closed-position win rate
67%
135 closed
Wallet age · markets
320d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 3 | 3 | 2.7 | +10.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $23.2k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $52.5k 2.7× usual |
called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $12.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x17a89c…