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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did -44.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-44.2 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$185.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$98.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.49M volume · 3,161 trades · since Dec 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$541.0k
Open P&L · 66 positions
−$640.2k
Closed-position win rate
90%
186 closed
Wallet age · markets
684d
241 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 2.8 | -44.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 78¢ | $83.2k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien | LOW BUY Learner Tien @ 64¢ | $27.3k | missed |
| US Open ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Flavio Cobolli | LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 56¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
 Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $12.9k | missed |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 85¢ | $51.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x979fc1…