← Wallets
+$5,098No · avg 91¢ → 92.5¢ · $310.3k−$5,804Yes · avg 72¢ → 64¢ · $50.6k+$1,470Yes · avg 68¢ → 70¢ · $40.5k−$3,931No · avg 72¢ → 66¢ · $39.6k+$24.8kYes · avg 5.7¢ → 16¢ · $39.0k+$1,250Yes · avg 72¢ → 74¢ · $37.2k+$2,158Yes · avg 63¢ → 68¢ · $34.9k+$7,529Yes · avg 55¢ → 80¢ · $24.1k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -21.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-21.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$561.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$752.9k
Last 30 days +$1,434 · $34.89M volume · 9,915 trades · since May 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$788.9k
Open P&L · 32 positions
−$45.6k
Closed-position win rate
75%
288 closed
Wallet age · markets
1578d
293 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -21.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $32.0k | pending |
 Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $49.2k | excluded |
 Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.1¢ | $42.1k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $349.0k 7.6× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $10.0k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | MED SELL No @ 79¢ | $79.0k | missed |
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