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Weekly report card

Week 2026-04

Jan 19, 00:00 EST – Jan 25, 23:59 EST · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
+1.4 pts
Called
80/109
Expected from price
78.5
Std. error
±3.2

In week 2026-04, 109 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 80 times; entry prices implied 78.5. Whales beat the price by +1.4 pts. One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics403533.5+3.8 pts
Sports391920.3-3.2 pts
Other302624.8+4.2 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Patriots vs. BroncosMED BUY Broncos @ 35¢ $147.4k
2.0× usual
35% 0xd0b4…fed6271d agomissed
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $100.0k90% edenmoon272d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $95.0k
2.7× usual
97% 1610desktop275d agocalled
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Seahawks @ 56¢ $78.6k56% 0xd0b4…fed6271d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED BUY No @ 95.8¢ $73.1k
3.2× usual
96% GoriIIa PROVEN284d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Broncos @ 35¢ $70.0k35% bcda271d agomissed
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Rams @ 44¢ $58.0k44% primm271d agomissed
Patriots vs. BroncosMED BUY Broncos @ 33¢ $54.9k33% primm273d agomissed
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $54.9k
2.8× usual
93% 0x5fbd…fb37277d agocalled
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED BUY Yes @ 96.8¢ $46.0k
2.1× usual
97% ScottyNooo PROVEN275d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosMED BUY Broncos @ 32¢ $44.5k32% 0xd0b4…fed6274d agomissed
Patriots vs. BroncosMED BUY Broncos @ 34¢ $44.2k34% primm271d agomissed
Patriots vs. BroncosMED SELL Patriots @ 66¢ $42.9k
2.4× usual
34% thestupidmoney272d agomissed
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY No @ 92.3¢ $41.0k
2.1× usual
92% 0x439b…2c9a278d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Broncos @ 35¢ $40.2k35% crossfire154271d agomissed
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Seahawks @ 58¢ $39.9k58% SammySledge276d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED BUY No @ 94.3¢ $39.3k94% HongKongMenace307d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED BUY No @ 96.9¢ $38.4k97% aff3 PROVEN294d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED BUY No @ 96.8¢ $37.7k97% pugdev277d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $35.5k96% PolBandit294d agocalled
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ $35.2k62% cy14272d agomissed
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Rams @ 44¢ $35.2k44% 212121212121212121212271d agomissed
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 70¢ $35.0k70% botbot277d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $33.7k
2.3× usual
96% 0x1abe…8a07273d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $33.5k97% SwissMiss LOSING273d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $33.1k94% aenews2 LOSING279d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED SELL No @ 94.7¢ $32.8k5% AngryRhino281d agomissed
Nets vs. ClippersLOW BUY Clippers @ 76¢ $32.6k76% Moneyloverman271d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosHIGH BUY Broncos @ 34¢ $31.1k34% c4c4 PROVEN271d agomissed
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ $29.9k62% 0xd0b4…fed6271d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED SELL No @ 96.6¢ $29.4k3% AngryRhino295d agomissed
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Seahawks @ 57¢ $28.5k57% 768543265273d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ $26.5k4% AngryRhino295d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ $25.4k95% aenews2 LOSING278d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 69¢ $24.9k69% 0x7b8c…abba276d agocalled
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92.3¢ $24.6k92% 0x705b…1e47277d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.2¢ $24.5k95% Frenzalrhomb276d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $24.4k90% tgrdy280d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $23.7k94% DonaldinhoTrumpito310d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $23.2k96% KokoVeLeon1273d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢ $23.1k94% HongKongMenace307d agocalled
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ $23.0k85% Nihaww278d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $22.8k97% KARMASUR275d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $22.8k96% ImJustKen275d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $22.5k95% 0x8c74…1b55277d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ $21.7k94% HongKongMenace306d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢ $21.0k96% 0x3a4f…81c5276d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $20.9k96% GoriIIa PROVEN288d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $20.5k96% HongKongMenace288d agocalled
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Rams @ 42¢ $20.4k42% gatorr277d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ $20.3k95% hollyber280d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Broncos @ 31¢ $20.2k31% DrPufferfish276d agomissed
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92.7¢ $19.8k93% 0x439b…2c9a275d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $19.5k92% rusho279d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 69¢ $19.0k69% Kluivert9277d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.1¢ $17.8k95% ImJustKen276d agocalled
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Seahawks @ 58¢ $17.4k58% SammySledge276d agocalled
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Seahawks @ 58¢ $17.2k58% 768543265276d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $17.1k96% PolBandit294d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $16.4k94% ImJustKen273d agocalled
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ $16.0k95% 0x4487…1ec1278d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $15.5k90% 0x5d86…0e96280d agocalled
Nets vs. ClippersLOW SELL Clippers @ 76¢ $15.2k24% 0x64b5…7543271d agomissed
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ $15.1k95% 0xce66…cc64278d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 67¢ $15.0k67% 0x163e…dc5b272d agocalled
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢ $14.9k92% Festka279d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ $14.5k3% anoin123274d agomissed
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 67¢ $14.2k67% 0x98f7…b3e4273d agocalled
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 6.4¢ $14.0k6% 0x8d76…eb01278d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $13.7k95% operationcastle281d agocalled
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Seahawks @ 56¢ $13.3k56% gmpm271d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 65¢ $13.0k65% 0x5e6e…be00271d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ $12.9k27% 0xe07a…6adb280d agomissed
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92.8¢ $12.8k93% 0x926d…635e278d agocalled
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.3¢ $12.7k94% DonaldinhoTrumpito278d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $12.6k92% 0x926d…635e279d agocalled
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $12.4k89% 0x3mf379C47E653dafa15384279d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $12.3k97% ilovepepefrog275d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 93.9¢ $12.2k6% meropi278d agomissed
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Rams @ 42¢ $12.1k42% 0x68dd…f0b2276d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $12.1k96% 148572738484277d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $12.0k92% 0x926d…635e278d agocalled
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Rams @ 44¢ $12.0k44% 0x7791…af80271d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢ $11.7k95% JJo281d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ $11.7k95% HongKongMenace280d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢ $11.6k96% 0xce66…cc64278d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $11.4k96% AuspiciousArt288d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 67¢ $11.3k67% 0x880a…e678271d agocalled
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 66¢ $11.3k66% 0x64b5…7543271d agocalled
Nets vs. ClippersLOW BUY Clippers @ 75¢ $11.2k75% Soarin22271d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $11.2k92% 0xb917…02c6278d agocalled
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?LOW SELL No @ 91.6¢ $11.2k8% sbimbg271d agomissed
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $11.1k93% Arlette278d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 95.1¢ $11.1k95% BuddhaYTorrance281d agocalled
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ $11.1k95% debased278d agocalled
Nets vs. ClippersLOW BUY Clippers @ 76¢ $11.1k76% Sensei2272d agocalled
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92.7¢ $10.8k93% 0x439b…2c9a277d agocalled
Nets vs. ClippersMED BUY Nets @ 25¢ $10.8k25% BreakTheBank PROVEN271d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢ $10.5k96% Yirmeyahu288d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $10.5k97% BuddhaYTorrance288d agocalled

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.