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+$2,895Yes · avg 81¢ → 91.5¢ · $24.7k+$82Yes · avg 86¢ → 88¢ · $4,375−$25Yes · avg 81¢ → 80¢ · $4,025+$619Yes · avg 81¢ → 97¢ · $3,719+$60Yes · avg 94¢ → 96.3¢ · $2,498
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +7.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$286.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$33.6k
Last 30 days +$1,504 · $1.20M volume · 302 trades · since Dec 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$33.4k
Open P&L · 7 positions
+$482
Closed-position win rate
100%
43 closed
Wallet age · markets
325d
50 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +11.0 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $26.7k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $59.8k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $10.7k | called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $11.4k | called |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $59.2k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
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