← Wallets
+$37No · avg 91¢ → 95.5¢ · $795−$203Yes · avg 62¢ → 5.7¢ · $21+$4No · avg 54¢ → 76¢ · $15+$3Yes · avg 71¢ → 98.3¢ · $10+$2No · avg 80¢ → 95.7¢ · $10+$9No · avg 8¢ → 94.3¢ · $9+$1No · avg 80¢ → 92.5¢ · $9+$1No · avg 82¢ → 95.2¢ · $6
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 5.7 wins, so it did +3.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.3 pts
Called / graded
6/9
Expected from price
5.7
Flagged volume
$190.8k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$12k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? at 47¢) and the edge is -3.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 32% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 53% · n=2
60–80¢
60% vs 68% · n=5
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$125.9k
Last 30 days +$92 · $11.58M volume · 25,591 trades · since Nov 08, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$526.7k
Open P&L · 198 positions
−$229.8k
Closed-position win rate
80%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
350d
599 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 3 | 2.8 | +4.3 pts |
| Crypto | 5 | 3 | 2.9 | +2.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $12.6k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
 Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $14.5k | called |
 Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢ | $14.9k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $13.4k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ | $12.0k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $15.8k | called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $13.5k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $20.1k | missed |
 Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 32¢ | $18.9k | missed |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $43.6k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
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