Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$7
Return on staked
+0.8%
Bets
6/9 won
Edge vs price
+3.3 pts ±15.0
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Dec 13, 16:50 ESTMar 04, 16:29 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 80¢ | called | 233d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | 59¢ | called | 278d ago |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | 92¢ | called | 279d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | 61¢ | called | 280d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | 47¢ | called | 281d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | 79¢ | called | 282d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | 61¢ | missed | 285d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | 60¢ | missed | 285d ago |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 32¢ | missed | 314d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.