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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -45.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.6 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$484.4k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$200k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Patriots vs. Broncos at 35¢) and the edge is -48.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 35% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 48% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.77M
Last 30 days +$0 · $150.86M volume · 67,079 trades · since Jan 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$31.40M
Open P&L · 68 positions
−$2.50M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
295d
2253 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 0 | 2.3 | -45.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Warriors vs. Clippers | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $45.3k | excluded |
 Hurricanes vs. Islanders | MED BUY Hurricanes @ 40¢ | $67.7k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 49¢ | $24.5k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 46¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Kings vs. Nets | MED BUY Nets @ 54¢ | $51.8k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | LOW BUY Ducks @ 42¢ | $84.0k | missed |
| Golden Knights vs. Sabres | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 44¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | MED BUY Celtics @ 57¢ | $66.5k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Heat | LOW BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Grizzlies vs. Rockets | MED BUY Grizzlies @ 19¢ | $38.2k | excluded |
 Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 35¢ | $70.0k | missed |
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