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+$1,292No · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $3,486+$87No · avg 93.4¢ → 97.8¢ · $1,955+$85No · avg 83¢ → 91.5¢ · $915−$1,292Yes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $902+$43No · avg 75¢ → 96.4¢ · $193
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -45.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-45.9 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$101.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3,010
Last 30 days +$107 · $1.67M volume · 4,057 trades · since Nov 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$3,010
Open P&L · 8 positions
+$1
Closed-position win rate
67%
291 closed
Wallet age · markets
346d
280 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -95.0 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $14.1k | missed |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $12.3k | called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
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