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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +2.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.8 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$60.6k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$72.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.63M volume · 1,369 trades · since Nov 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$72.8k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
89%
45 closed
Wallet age · markets
717d
45 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +2.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $12.4k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 96.4¢ | $14.5k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $33.7k 2.3× usual |
called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1abeb4…