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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.5 wins, so it did -7.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-7.2 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
3.5
Flagged volume
$555.7k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$36k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 46¢) and the edge is -17.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 23% · n=1
40–60¢
60% vs 52% · n=5
60–80¢
0% vs 67% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$105.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $83.10M volume · 52,345 trades · since Jan 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$15.06M
Open P&L · 381 positions
−$11.57M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
631d
1595 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.5 | +9.6 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -46.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -52.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $68.1k | missed |
 Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $12.3k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 70¢ | $267.1k 7.7× usual |
excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED SELL Seahawks @ 79¢ | $79.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
 UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Hooker @ 23¢ | $18.2k | missed |
| UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Ruffy @ 46¢ | $34.6k | called |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 58¢ | $17.4k | called |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 58¢ | $39.9k | called |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY No @ 46¢ | $19.2k | missed |
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