← Wallets
+$3,624Yes · avg 89¢ → 91.5¢ · $148.0k−$260Yes · avg 95¢ → 94.2¢ · $30.1k+$108Yes · avg 96.5¢ → 96.9¢ · $26.2k+$148Yes · avg 96.1¢ → 97¢ · $16.7k+$210No · avg 96.1¢ → 97.5¢ · $15.7k+$36Yes · avg 96.3¢ → 96.5¢ · $14.8k+$362Yes · avg 94.1¢ → 96.7¢ · $13.4k−$34Yes · avg 75¢ → 74¢ · $4,992
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did +6.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.9 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$128.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$4k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? at 87¢) and the edge is +5.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$63.9k
Last 30 days −$1,212 · $1.93M volume · 587 trades · since May 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$63.0k
Open P&L · 29 positions
−$20
Closed-position win rate
98%
87 closed
Wallet age · markets
525d
116 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.7 | +8.7 pts |
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +4.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $10.4k | called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $11.6k | called |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 90.1¢ | $10.4k | called |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 95.1¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $10.5k | called |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
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