What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +6.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.2 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$1.85M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$324.3k
Last 30 days −$0 · $13.33M volume · 2,836 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
