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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.9 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$21.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$73.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $962.2k volume · 164 trades · since Jul 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$11.5k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$61.7k
Closed-position win rate
68%
66 closed
Wallet age · markets
463d
65 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢ | $21.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3a4fc9…