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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did +17.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+17.5 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$58.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$11.4k
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.16M volume · 1,046 trades · since Jan 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$13.0k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1,616
Closed-position win rate
68%
19 closed
Wallet age · markets
286d
18 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.3 | +17.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $11.3k | called |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $10.2k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $17.2k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $19.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3511d6…