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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.8 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$16.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$66.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.84M volume · 1,466 trades · since Dec 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$60.3k
Open P&L · 93 positions
−$126.6k
Closed-position win rate
62%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
324d
136 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ | $16.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x448718…