Weekly report card

Week 2026-03

Jan 12, 00:00 EST – Jan 18, 23:59 EST · markets that resolved this week

← 2026-02 2026-04 →

Price-adjusted edge

-1.5 pts

Called

19/26

Expected from price

19.4

Std. error

±6.4

In week 2026-03, 26 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 19 times; entry prices implied 19.4. Whales did no better than the price (-1.5 pts). One week is a small sample.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95.7¢	$130.7k 2.3× usual	96%	0x9c99…7250	282d ago	called
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 8.2¢	$50.0k	8%	0x042e…247f	292d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95.6¢	$45.9k 2.3× usual	96%	0x5fbd…fb37	282d ago	called
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?	MED SELL No @ 96.3¢	$42.6k 2.9× usual	4%	elPolloLoco	290d ago	missed
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91.5¢	$33.3k	91%	TexMexTRex	280d ago	called
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$32.6k	86%	0xe9f7…00f9	282d ago	called
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?	MED BUY No @ 97¢	$30.2k	97%	0x439b…2c9a	286d ago	called
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 14¢	$30.0k	14%	opulent	307d ago	missed
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 15¢	$25.0k	15%	0x8d76…eb01	280d ago	missed
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 83¢	$20.9k	83%	AnonymousUsername	404d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢	$18.3k	95%	hitjnn214	281d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$17.5k	92%	0xddd8…4471	282d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$16.9k	75%	denizz LOSING	282d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95.2¢	$15.9k	95%	0xa9e8…c443	281d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$15.7k	82%	0x6ae1…1e7e	285d ago	called
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢	$15.6k	97%	DickTurbin	286d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$15.2k	82%	5245242	285d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$15.2k	82%	tgrdy	282d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$15.0k	75%	0xe07a…6adb	283d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$12.7k	87%	0x1005…6f5b	283d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$12.4k	70%	0x5d2f…5034	283d ago	called
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢	$11.9k	96%	0xdcc9…4534	285d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$11.7k	75%	0x83e1…6a54	284d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$11.2k	80%	KokoVeLeon1	282d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$10.8k	75%	0xeb2b…3e70	283d ago	missed
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$10.7k	91%	11122	337d ago	called

Week 2026-03

By category

Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)

Biggest misses

Every graded flag

The graded brief, free