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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 17 of 17. The prices it paid implied about 15.3 wins, so it did +10.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 17 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +9.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+10.1 pts
Called / graded
17/17
Expected from price
15.3
Flagged volume
$1.02M
Sample size17 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$111k17 graded bets in the order they resolved · 17 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? at 83¢) and the edge is +9.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=17
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$147.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.43M volume · 72 trades · since Sep 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$147.4k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
403d
3 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 16 | 16 | 14.3 | +10.5 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.3 pts |
History
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