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DickTurbin

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +9.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+9.9 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$293.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$234.4k
Last 30 days +$466 · $54.91M volume · 84,299 trades · since Jul 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.14M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$519.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
820d
4746 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other432.6+9.9 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $14.7k98% 200d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $46.2k
3.0× usual
0% 236d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 85¢ $10.1k15% 262d agomissed
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $28.0k100% 262d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $17.0k0% 262d agoexcluded
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $17.6k76% 271d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ $12.1k1% 272d agoexcluded
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 27¢ $20.6k73% 275d agocalled
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?LOW SELL No @ 92.7¢ $12.1k7% 277d agomissed
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY No @ 90.5¢ $36.2k
2.4× usual
90% 279d agocalled
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.6k0% 279d agoexcluded
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $10.9k98% 279d agoexcluded
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ $15.6k97% 286d agocalled
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $12.7k99% 291d agoexcluded
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $12.4k99% 292d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $16.5k0% 293d agoexcluded

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