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+$716Yes · avg 80¢ → 85¢ · $10.7k+$817No · avg 71¢ → 86¢ · $4,817
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did +16.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+16.8 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$42.4k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$17.2k
Last 30 days −$194 · $300.1k volume · 18 trades · since Jan 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6,277
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$23.4k
Closed-position win rate
73%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
284d
14 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | +16.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $15.0k | called |
 US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $12.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5d2f66…