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opulent

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -18.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?−$23.4kYes · avg 34¢ → 5.5¢ · $4,435 · 0 proven with, 1 against
Price-adjusted edge
-18.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$83.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$49.3k
Last 30 days −$806 · $1.74M volume · 1,051 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$83.5k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$140.2k
Closed-position win rate
70%
10 closed
Wallet age · markets
488d
20 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other200.4-18.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 50¢ $14.1k50% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ $39.6k22% 285d agomissed
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 14¢ $30.0k14% 307d agomissed

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x9c0f44…