0x6ae1…1e7e

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +17.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?−$1No · avg 97.8¢ → 97.8¢ · $1,199

Price-adjusted edge

+17.8 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$372.2k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±38.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$19.9k

Last 30 days −$1 · $14.31M volume · 38,623 trades · since Sep 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$316.0k

Open P&L · 50 positions

−$9,173

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

760d

1089 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.8	+17.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$36.0k	98%	266d ago	excluded
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢	$36.7k	98%	267d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$90.0k 2.5× usual	99%	272d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢	$11.0k	98%	274d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$15.7k	82%	284d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED SELL No @ 93¢	$91.4k 2.5× usual	7%	366d ago	missed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 93¢	$91.4k 2.5× usual	93%	370d ago	called

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 97.5¢$36.0k

LOW 0x6ae1…1e7e · 266d ago

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 98.4¢$36.7k

LOW 0x6ae1…1e7e · 267d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.3¢$90.0k

LOW 0x6ae1…1e7e · 272d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 98.1¢$11.0k

LOW 0x6ae1…1e7e · 274d ago

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?called

BUY No @ 82¢$15.7k

LOW 0x6ae1…1e7e · 284d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed

SELL No @ 93¢$91.4k

MED 0x6ae1…1e7e · 366d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 93¢$91.4k

MED 0x6ae1…1e7e · 370d ago

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