← Wallets
+$6,297No · avg 66¢ → 95.5¢ · $20.5k−$400No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $16.3k−$1,559Yes · avg 60¢ → 42¢ · $3,430−$18.1kYes · avg 51¢ → 8¢ · $3,327+$856No · avg 71¢ → 95.2¢ · $3,309−$394Yes · avg 23¢ → 19¢ · $1,910+$200No · avg 69¢ → 95.8¢ · $720−$128No · avg 75¢ → 62¢ · $620
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$98.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$24.8k
Last 30 days −$2,321 · $4.39M volume · 8,003 trades · since May 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 450 closed
+$334.5k
Open P&L · 62 positions
−$96.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
450 closed
Wallet age · markets
518d
678 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $27.0k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ | $18.3k | called |
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