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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +2.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.8 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$143.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$20.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $775.4k volume · 253 trades · since Apr 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$18.7k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$2,052
Closed-position win rate
35%
60 closed
Wallet age · markets
907d
60 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +2.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $11.7k | called |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL No @ 71¢ | $11.7k | called |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL No @ 74¢ | $12.2k | called |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $14.7k | missed |
 Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $14.7k | missed |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $18.9k | missed |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 80¢ | $19.6k | missed |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $20.0k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $10.0k | called |
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