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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +6.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +1.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.7 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$271.6k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$41k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 67¢) and the edge is +1.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$21.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.47M volume · 2,486 trades · since Nov 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 443 closed
+$21.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
82%
443 closed
Wallet age · markets
720d
440 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | +7.6 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +33.0 pts |
| Other | 3 | 1 | 1.1 | -2.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢ | $11.8k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 89¢ | $18.8k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $17.5k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
 Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $40.3k 2.3× usual |
called |
 US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 96.1¢ | $10.5k | missed |
 Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $80.9k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 94.1¢ | $28.8k | missed |
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