← Wallets
−$1,000No · avg 84¢ → 80¢ · $20.0k+$750No · avg 62¢ → 64¢ · $19.3k+$1,200No · avg 66¢ → 72¢ · $14.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$53No · avg 97.1¢ → 98.6¢ · $3,623+$35No · avg 45¢ → 46¢ · $2,320−$2,055Yes · avg 18¢ → 8.5¢ · $1,752+$230No · avg 27¢ → 32¢ · $1,580+$393No · avg 45¢ → 60¢ · $1,570
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +23.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+23.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$230.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$543.7k
Last 30 days −$1,119 · $16.29M volume · 21,389 trades · since Sep 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.28M
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$4,066
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
780d
1040 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +42.0 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $11.6k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 90¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $13.7k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 90.7¢ | $35.9k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $12.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 87¢ | $57.6k 4.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 80¢ | $11.4k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $74.6k 5.5× usual |
called |
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