← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $56.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 74% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$56.7k
BUY No @ 74¢ · 76,670 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)2.4× this wallet's usual betCrypto
What happened
Wallet 0x0154…15a8 took No (buy) for $56.7k at an average 74¢. At that price the market implied a 74% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $56.7k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 74¢ means
74%chance the market gave
−285American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 74¢
- Implied odds
- 74.0%
- Size
- $56.7k
- Placed
- Jan 21, 10:18 EST
- Market close
- Jan 29, 12:52 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x0154…15a8
- Tx
- 0x786d9496…
This wallet's graded record
0/6-73.3 pts
expected 4.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -74 ptsNo price · entry 74¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | MED SELL No @ 60¢ | $47.8k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 66¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | MED SELL No @ 77¢ | $56.3k | called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 74¢ | $24.2k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | MED BUY No @ 74¢ | $51.1k 2.1× usual |
missed |