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+$700No · avg 39¢ → 56¢ · $2,260+$258No · avg 44¢ → 95.5¢ · $478+$16No · avg 40¢ → 57¢ · $52
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$368.4k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.53M
Last 30 days +$1,396 · $12.48M volume · 17,534 trades · since Dec 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 450 closed
+$537.7k
Open P&L · 7 positions
+$375
Closed-position win rate
100%
450 closed
Wallet age · markets
1046d
1149 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $45.5k | excluded |
 Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | MED SELL No @ 55¢ | $33.3k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | LOW SELL No @ 56¢ | $22.0k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | LOW SELL No @ 57¢ | $27.9k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | LOW BUY No @ 63¢ | $13.6k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | MED BUY No @ 76¢ | $89.0k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | MED SELL No @ 77¢ | $56.3k | called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $34.2k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | MED BUY No @ 79¢ | $46.6k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd4f904…