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Weekly report card

Week 2026-36

Aug 31, 00:00 EDT – Sep 06, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
+1.7 pts
Called
75/110
Expected from price
73.1
Std. error
±3.7

In week 2026-36, 110 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 75 times; entry prices implied 73.1. Whales beat the price by +1.7 pts. One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other665148.4+3.9 pts
Sports442424.7-1.5 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?HIGH BUY Yes @ 48¢ $439.2k48% 3edmond.dantes48d agomissed
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-05?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $145.9k
6.1× usual
53% plonker202648d agomissed
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $94.5k88% sameday1107d agocalled
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles DodgersMED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 72¢ $93.2k
2.3× usual
72% Talvez10 PROVEN50d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $75.1k
2.1× usual
94% DonaldinhoTrumpito65d agocalled
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsMED BUY MOUZ @ 37¢ $71.7k
3.4× usual
37% SkyonX47d agomissed
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsLOW BUY Spirit @ 64¢ $70.4k
3.4× usual
64% NS1347d agocalled
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsMED BUY MOUZ @ 36¢ $65.5k36% Diabolical-Prize48d agomissed
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsMED BUY Spirit @ 67¢ $62.5k
3.1× usual
67% 1233333333148d agocalled
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ $60.2k
2.4× usual
64% Painfulvoid54d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?MED SELL No @ 81¢ $60.0k
2.2× usual
19% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN80d agomissed
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 96¢ $54.7k
2.0× usual
96% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN85d agocalled
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group BMED BUY MOUZ @ 47¢ $53.9k47% AV23IUa PROVEN53d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $52.4k92% PolBandit76d agocalled
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles DodgersLOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 72¢ $49.0k72% Kosherlocks50d agocalled
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-05?MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ $46.0k46% AV23IUa PROVEN49d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 91.6¢ $45.8k92% hymolu91d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?MED SELL No @ 81¢ $45.2k19% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN80d agomissed
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-05?MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ $45.0k46% 0xDigitalOil49d agomissed
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-05?MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ $44.0k52% gransaaa LOSING49d agomissed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ $43.2k85% ImJustKen76d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $41.2k
2.1× usual
96% HongKongMenace64d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?MED SELL Yes @ 23¢ $40.1k77% Istaroth121d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?MED BUY No @ 96¢ $38.5k
2.2× usual
96% thoodr83d agocalled
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-05?LOW BUY No @ 55¢ $35.2k55% x55x49d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93.6¢ $34.0k94% tetrase58d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 97¢ $33.9k97% scottilicious PROVEN83d agocalled
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ $32.2k
2.5× usual
46% WINSONS48d agomissed
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-09-05?MED BUY No @ 51¢ $31.2k51% Bloodygoodrep149d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $30.0k97% Babymunk62d agocalled
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK PlayoffsLOW BUY Dplus KIA @ 75¢ $28.9k75% TAIWANNUMBERONE51d agocalled
US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor SvrcinaMED BUY Luciano Darderi @ 57¢ $28.7k57% AV23IUa PROVEN51d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?MED SELL No @ 92.5¢ $28.1k7% NeH99d agomissed
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?LOW BUY No @ 55¢ $28.0k55% x55x49d agocalled
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-09-05?LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ $27.9k51% 0xDigitalOil49d agomissed
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?LOW BUY No @ 55¢ $27.0k55% x55x48d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $25.7k94% The Spirit of Ukraine>UM86d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $24.9k91% bettingonwar86d agocalled
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsLOW BUY MOUZ @ 38¢ $24.8k38% t19848d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $24.7k87% tourists78d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ $24.2k96% tetrase57d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $23.7k89% The Spirit of Ukraine>UM104d agocalled
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ $22.6k49% kimi198647d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 93¢ $22.3k7% James00084d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $22.2k89% skibabiba101d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $22.1k81% Valen979d agocalled
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK PlayoffsLOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 65¢ $21.6k65% YYYYY99952d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $20.8k95% SlenderMan75d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 91.8¢ $20.4k92% scottilicious PROVEN59d agocalled
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK PlayoffsLOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 65¢ $20.0k65% five512052d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92.9¢ $19.9k93% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN59d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 87¢ $19.5k13% grinder45691d agomissed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93.6¢ $18.7k94% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN58d agocalled
US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Leylah FernandezLOW BUY Jessica Pegula @ 84¢ $18.3k84% ferrariChampions202650d agocalled
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-05?LOW BUY No @ 55¢ $17.6k55% N3449d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $17.2k14% mr.ozi80d agomissed
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsLOW BUY Spirit @ 65¢ $17.0k65% IAmHomelessNow48d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $16.6k96% scottilicious PROVEN60d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $16.4k94% DonaldinhoTrumpito66d agocalled
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro TabiloLOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 82¢ $16.2k82% ferrariChampions202648d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ $16.1k95% Avamax84d agocalled
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado RockiesLOW BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 61¢ $16.0k61% ferrariChampions202651d agomissed
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?LOW BUY No @ 37¢ $15.9k37% bewise53d agomissed
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group BLOW BUY Team Falcons @ 54¢ $15.9k54% itwillallbeok54d agomissed
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK PlayoffsLOW BUY T1 @ 35¢ $15.8k35% thatguythatguy52d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $15.8k79% 0x8c66…44f3104d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $15.4k77% Parz1vaI110d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $15.0k75% mm4ker118d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $15.0k93% 0x5d2f…503486d agocalled
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro TabiloLOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 86¢ $15.0k86% Cuco8449d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $15.0k96% scottilicious PROVEN59d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $14.7k78% tourists108d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $14.7k92% MissaoComFlavio69d agocalled
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-05?LOW BUY No @ 48¢ $14.6k48% StasPanda49d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $14.6k87% PamBondiBonds81d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $14.5k96% scottilicious PROVEN58d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $13.9k90% The Spirit of Ukraine>UM103d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $13.6k94% scottilicious PROVEN65d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 83¢ $13.5k17% Seutervoinen80d agomissed
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado RockiesLOW BUY Colorado Rockies @ 46¢ $13.4k46% 0x16bb…849253d agomissed
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $13.2k76% betwick117d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 88¢ $13.0k12% carlos48467d agomissed
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ $13.0k47% WINSONS49d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $12.8k97% tetrose74d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ $12.6k82% UnderperformingForALivin108d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $12.4k83% generalVR79d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢ $12.3k96% LulaVaiPerder83d agocalled
US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel AltmaierLOW BUY Zachary Svajda @ 60¢ $12.3k60% ferrariChampions202652d agocalled
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK PlayoffsLOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 64¢ $12.0k64% jtwyslljy52d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $12.0k82% Moonshot101969d agocalled
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsLOW BUY Spirit @ 68¢ $12.0k68% PS00348d agocalled
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group BLOW BUY Team Falcons @ 53¢ $11.9k53% Djibru53d agomissed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $11.8k92% afdafdafdafdafd59d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $11.7k96% cymcity74d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.4¢ $11.7k96% Loit12362d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 25¢ $11.6k75% Istaroth122d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $11.6k82% PredictionYogi70d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $11.6k14% Outsid3rTrading79d agomissed
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?LOW BUY No @ 37¢ $11.1k37% plonker202654d agomissed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 95¢ $11.1k5% eCash67d agomissed

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