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LulaVaiPerder

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -16.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
-16.5 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$925.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$559.8k
Last 30 days +$16.6k · $12.54M volume · 5,892 trades · since Oct 08, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 408 closed
+$629.0k
Open P&L · 48 positions
−$127.4k
Closed-position win rate
81%
408 closed
Wallet age · markets
746d
441 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports100.8-79.0 pts
Other332.9+4.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ $25.6k65% 15h agopending
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?LOW SELL No @ 83¢ $24.9k17% 15h agopending
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ $16.4k73% 2d agopending
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ $32.5k72% 2d agopending
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ $32.4k72% 2d agopending
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.3¢ $24.9k95% 12d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $19.0k0% 53d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $17.8k95% 68d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $16.9k96% 75d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $16.9k0% 75d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $28.9k0% 82d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $15.4k0% 82d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢ $12.3k96% 83d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $90.0k
4.5× usual
100% 84d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $12.0k98% 90d agoexcluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?LOW BUY No @ 90.3¢ $14.0k90% 99d agoexcluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $13.8k86% 101d agoexcluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ $21.2k79% 105d agomissed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ $19.9k1% 185d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $59.9k
3.0× usual
0% 185d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.8k0% 185d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ $39.6k1% 185d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 91¢ $10.4k9% 187d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED SELL No @ 92¢ $46.0k
2.3× usual
8% 188d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $29.9k1% 200d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $13.8k0% 201d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ $26.1k68% 204d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 96.7¢ $26.1k3% 204d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $30.5k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.3k0% 206d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 68¢ $20.9k32% 208d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 69¢ $14.3k69% 228d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $16.0k68% 230d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 66¢ $20.0k66% 231d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $11.0k75% 231d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 62¢ $17.0k62% 231d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 63¢ $20.0k63% 232d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED BUY Yes @ 95.3¢ $25.5k95% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ $23.0k55% 237d agoexcluded

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