← Wallets
+$3Yes · avg 91.5¢ → 91.5¢ · $20.4k+$290No · avg 61¢ → 90.5¢ · $905+$340No · avg 56¢ → 90.5¢ · $905+$114No · avg 83¢ → 96.4¢ · $815+$73No · avg 65¢ → 74¢ · $599+$88No · avg 76¢ → 93.5¢ · $468+$195No · avg 54¢ → 92.5¢ · $462+$29No · avg 85¢ → 94.5¢ · $304
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +11.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+11.3 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$60.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$42.1k
Last 30 days −$770 · $13.29M volume · 220,956 trades · since Oct 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$149.9k
Open P&L · 197 positions
−$35.5k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
749d
974 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.5 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +17.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $12.4k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.5¢ | $20.0k | called |
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