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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -45.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.4 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$195.3k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$79k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13? at 31¢) and the edge is -49.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 33% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 54% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 0 | 2.3 | -45.4 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x317060…