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James000

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +3.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$1.08M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$219.4k
Last 30 days −$1,612 · $5.09M volume · 1,503 trades · since Oct 17, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$28.0k
Open P&L · 16 positions
−$250.8k
Closed-position win rate
69%
51 closed
Wallet age · markets
737d
60 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other210.9+3.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 93¢ $22.3k7% 84d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $18.0k0% 114d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 93¢ $58.7k
2.6× usual
7% 135d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $58.3k
2.6× usual
96% 136d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 91¢ $76.1k
3.4× usual
9% 136d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $42.4k90% 138d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 83¢ $18.9k17% 139d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $61.6k
2.8× usual
87% 139d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ $18.7k2% 140d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED SELL No @ 93¢ $37.2k7% 140d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $16.9k86% 142d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?MED SELL No @ 93¢ $25.5k7% 145d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $14.0k0% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $16.6k89% 146d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $12.7k98% 146d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ $59.9k
2.7× usual
2% 150d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $11.3k98% 151d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 97¢ $29.0k3% 151d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢ $22.0k96% 158d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 71¢ $34.6k29% 161d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 95.7¢ $19.1k4% 161d agomissed
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ $12.2k86% 162d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 71¢ $14.2k29% 162d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $60.5k
2.7× usual
92% 164d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 85¢ $18.8k15% 166d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 96.2¢ $20.8k4% 169d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $25.4k95% 170d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?MED SELL No @ 84¢ $54.0k
2.4× usual
16% 172d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $53.2k
2.4× usual
81% 173d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED BUY No @ 93¢ $50.3k
2.3× usual
93% 173d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?MED SELL No @ 78¢ $32.2k22% 173d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 73¢ $10.0k73% 180d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $15.5k86% 180d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ $28.6k2% 180d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $13.8k98% 180d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?missed
SELL No @ 93¢$22.3k
LOW James000 · 84d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$18.0k
LOW James000 · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 93¢$58.7k
MED James000 · 135d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 95.9¢$58.3k
LOW James000 · 136d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 91¢$76.1k
MED James000 · 136d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 90¢$42.4k
LOW James000 · 138d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 83¢$18.9k
LOW James000 · 139d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 87¢$61.6k
LOW James000 · 139d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.5¢$18.7k
LOW James000 · 140d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?called
SELL No @ 93¢$37.2k
MED James000 · 140d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 86¢$16.9k
LOW James000 · 142d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 93¢$25.5k
MED James000 · 145d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$14.0k
LOW James000 · 145d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?called
BUY No @ 89¢$16.6k
LOW James000 · 146d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$12.7k
LOW James000 · 146d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
SELL No @ 97.8¢$59.9k
LOW James000 · 150d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
BUY No @ 97.6¢$11.3k
LOW James000 · 151d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
SELL No @ 97¢$29.0k
LOW James000 · 151d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 95.8¢$22.0k
LOW James000 · 158d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 71¢$34.6k
MED James000 · 161d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 95.7¢$19.1k
LOW James000 · 161d ago
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
BUY Yes @ 86¢$12.2k
LOW James000 · 162d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 71¢$14.2k
LOW James000 · 162d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 92¢$60.5k
LOW James000 · 164d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 85¢$18.8k
LOW James000 · 166d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?missed
SELL No @ 96.2¢$20.8k
LOW James000 · 169d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?called
BUY No @ 95¢$25.4k
LOW James000 · 170d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 84¢$54.0k
MED James000 · 172d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 81¢$53.2k
LOW James000 · 173d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?called
BUY No @ 93¢$50.3k
MED James000 · 173d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 78¢$32.2k
MED James000 · 173d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 73¢$10.0k
LOW James000 · 180d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?called
BUY No @ 86¢$15.5k
LOW James000 · 180d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.4¢$28.6k
LOW James000 · 180d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$13.8k
LOW James000 · 180d ago

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