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What this means. A wallet put $18.7k on not No, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?excluded
$18.7k
SELL No @ 98.5¢ · 18,969 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideOther

What happened

Wallet James000 took No (sell) for $18.7k at an average 98.5¢. At that price the market implied a 2% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $18.7k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
Entry price
98.5¢
Implied odds
1.5%
Size
$18.7k
Placed
Jun 06, 07:12 EDT
Market close
Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
James000
Tx
0x604b2d64…
This wallet's graded record
1/2+3.5 pts
expected 0.9 from price

Entry to resolution

Grade -2 pts
No price · entry 98.5¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 98.5¢ · $18.7k WHALE $18.7K @ 98.5¢ MISSED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $13.1k0% CiaoBilly138d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $25.8k0% 98778 NEW138d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $30.9k0% 8632138d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.1k0% 0x8372…d1c4 NEW138d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $51.1k100% danielleggerman139d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $109.9k
4.4× usual
100% strike123139d agoexcluded