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+$2,190Over · avg 50¢ → 55¢ · $26.5k+$600No · avg 48¢ → 50¢ · $13.5k · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 15. The prices it paid implied about 6.8 wins, so it did -18.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 15 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-18.4 pts
Called / graded
4/15
Expected from price
6.8
Flagged volume
$966.9k
Sample size15 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$310k15 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? at 44¢) and the edge is -23.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 38% · n=3
40–60¢
33% vs 47% · n=12
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.33M
Last 30 days −$270.6k · $22.40M volume · 24,136 trades · since Jul 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.82M
Open P&L · 152 positions
−$5.05M
Closed-position win rate
85%
163 closed
Wallet age · markets
95d
313 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 15 | 4 | 6.8 | -18.4 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x0a39b3…