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+$2,151No · avg 77¢ → 97.3¢ · $10.1k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did -11.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-11.9 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$246.6k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$18k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? at 81¢) and the edge is -19.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 21% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 79% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 86% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$58.0k
Last 30 days +$12.0k · $3.97M volume · 1,908 trades · since Jan 19, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$276.8k
Open P&L · 161 positions
−$214.1k
Closed-position win rate
85%
335 closed
Wallet age · markets
278d
493 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -79.3 pts |
| Other | 4 | 3 | 2.8 | +5.0 pts |
History
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