← Wallets
+$2,205No · avg 89¢ → 90.5¢ · $119.5k+$5,156No · avg 88¢ → 97¢ · $59.2k+$3,762No · avg 87¢ → 95¢ · $47.5k+$9,843No · avg 70¢ → 90¢ · $45.8k+$1,472No · avg 89¢ → 95¢ · $22.6k+$300No · avg 80¢ → 82¢ · $15.8k−$130Yes · avg 92.3¢ → 91.5¢ · $14.2k+$2,537Yes · avg 2¢ → 7.3¢ · $3,494
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +40.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +31.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+40.8 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$309.9k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$75k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? at 24¢) and the edge is +31.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
100% vs 24% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 55% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$46.7k
Last 30 days +$10.4k · $8.18M volume · 1,972 trades · since Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$76.2k
Open P&L · 9 positions
+$25.4k
Closed-position win rate
50%
159 closed
Wallet age · markets
505d
164 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.2 | +76.4 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 3 | 1.7 | +45.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -7.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | MED SELL No @ 92.5¢ | $28.1k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $20.5k | called |
 Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $11.2k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $10.0k | called |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 76¢ | $21.6k | called |
 Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢ | $18.2k | called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 93¢ | $80.8k 3.7× usual |
missed |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $29.4k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $90.1k 4.2× usual |
called |
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