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+$262No · avg 73¢ → 78¢ · $4,445−$2,929Yes · avg 50¢ → 22¢ · $2,226−$1,229Yes · avg 35¢ → 14¢ · $771+$72No · avg 58¢ → 78¢ · $293+$4No · avg 88¢ → 90¢ · $254−$81Yes · avg 68¢ → 50¢ · $219−$213Yes · avg 64¢ → 17¢ · $77−$142Yes · avg 29¢ → 8.5¢ · $58 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +13.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+13.0 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$95.2k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$49.8k
Last 30 days +$1,289 · $2.72M volume · 2,545 trades · since Jan 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$52.5k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$4,360
Closed-position win rate
70%
381 closed
Wallet age · markets
286d
389 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | +13.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Egypt @ 88¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $22.0k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $11.0k | called |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 70¢ | $12.2k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $20.0k | called |
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