← Wallets
+$1,191Yes · avg 94¢ → 97¢ · $38.2k+$623No · avg 95¢ → 97.5¢ · $24.4k+$27No · avg 95.2¢ → 95.3¢ · $20.5k+$988Yes · avg 84¢ → 91.5¢ · $12.0k−$55No · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $10.1k−$529Yes · avg 90¢ → 83¢ · $6,647+$377Yes · avg 76¢ → 81¢ · $6,148+$26No · avg 85¢ → 86¢ · $5,863
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +2.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+2.8 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$230.3k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$124.7k
Last 30 days −$3,193 · $6.77M volume · 6,655 trades · since Jun 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$128.5k
Open P&L · 112 positions
−$4,445
Closed-position win rate
83%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
130d
567 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +44.0 pts |
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | -10.0 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -12.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $21.4k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 83¢ | $13.5k | missed |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $24.4k | called |
 Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ | $11.6k | missed |
 Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $36.5k | excluded |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $25.0k | missed |
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