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+$15.6kNo · avg 78¢ → 94¢ · $94.0k+$118Yes · avg 79¢ → 79¢ · $61.3k+$131Yes · avg 85¢ → 86¢ · $26.1k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +7.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +0.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.2 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$58.7k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$15k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? at 68¢) and the edge is +0.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 11% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 87% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$65.2k
Last 30 days +$33.4k · $847.5k volume · 202 trades · since Apr 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$53.9k
Open P&L · 6 positions
+$12.1k
Closed-position win rate
63%
38 closed
Wallet age · markets
182d
44 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 3 | 2.6 | +7.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91.2¢ | $15.0k | called |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $10.5k | called |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 88¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 68¢ | $10.1k | called |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 89¢ | $10.1k | missed |
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