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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did +13.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+13.0 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$121.6k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$42k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06? at 55¢) and the edge is +5.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 24% · n=1
40–60¢
75% vs 53% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$125.2k
Last 30 days −$49.7k · $733.3k volume · 75 trades · since Aug 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$76.7k
Open P&L · 27 positions
−$197.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
6 closed
Wallet age · markets
59d
33 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.4 | +13.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? | LOW BUY No @ 46¢ | $15.5k | missed |
 Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $27.0k | called |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-05? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $35.2k | called |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $28.0k | called |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27? | LOW BUY No @ 24¢ | $15.9k | missed |
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