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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did +1.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.1 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$73.0k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$36.5k
Last 30 days −$15.7k · $1.64M volume · 285 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$152.0k
Open P&L · 43 positions
−$187.2k
Closed-position win rate
97%
150 closed
Wallet age · markets
287d
194 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | -7.5 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +27.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 58¢ | $10.0k | called |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 78¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo | LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 86¢ | $15.0k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $15.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf3b04d…