Weekly report card

Week 2026-33

Aug 10, 00:00 EDT – Aug 16, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

← 2026-32 2026-34 →

Price-adjusted edge

-3.9 pts

Called

46/76

Expected from price

49.0

Std. error

±4.8

In week 2026-33, 76 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 46 times; entry prices implied 49.0. Whales did no better than the price (-3.9 pts). One week is a small sample.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	47	25	25.0	-0.1 pts
Other	21	14	17.3	-15.7 pts
Politics	8	7	6.6	+4.4 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	HIGH BUY Islam Makhachev @ 76¢	$290.0k	76%	noway8 NEW	70d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C	HIGH BUY 100 Thieves @ 27¢	$180.5k	27%	Djdjdjekekek	72d ago	missed
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?	MED BUY Yes @ 58¢	$173.0k 6.3× usual	58%	HongYunX	72d ago	called
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?	MED BUY No @ 43¢	$117.4k 2.6× usual	43%	umeax	72d ago	missed
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees	MED BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢	$115.8k	59%	Weaseloftheweek	71d ago	missed
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	HIGH BUY Islam Makhachev @ 77¢	$110.1k	77%	0x77da…024a NEW	69d ago	called
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees	MED BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢	$90.4k 4.1× usual	59%	Pwaddler	71d ago	missed
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Over @ 51¢	$77.4k	51%	gransaaa LOSING	69d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	MED BUY No @ 92.6¢	$67.7k 4.3× usual	93%	ProfessionalPunter	107d ago	called
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	LOW SELL Rafael Jodar @ 56¢	$61.3k	44%	Weaseloftheweek	73d ago	missed
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$59.9k 3.4× usual	87%	vtcchampion52	74d ago	missed
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91.7¢	$42.3k	92%	Dropper	72d ago	called
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 88¢	$38.9k	88%	scottilicious PROVEN	75d ago	called
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 60¢	$37.4k	60%	0x3dfb…abaf	74d ago	missed
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	MED SELL Rafael Jodar @ 57¢	$36.1k	43%	Weaseloftheweek	74d ago	missed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 78¢	$35.5k	78%	scottilicious PROVEN	75d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	MED BUY No @ 95.5¢	$34.5k	95%	ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN	80d ago	called
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	MED BUY Islam Makhachev @ 76¢	$33.0k	76%	SupermanJoe NEW	73d ago	called
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	MED BUY Ian Machado Garry @ 24¢	$29.1k	24%	0xb3f0…5c25	69d ago	missed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$26.4k	96%	anon.1980.123	72d ago	called
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	LOW BUY Arthur Fils @ 46¢	$26.4k	46%	ferrariChampions2026	74d ago	missed
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$25.5k	82%	disputequant	73d ago	missed
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	MED BUY Islam Makhachev @ 75¢	$25.4k	75%	elrah	69d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 92.4¢	$23.4k	92%	tourists	107d ago	called
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$23.1k	54%	betwick	95d ago	called
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	LOW BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 38¢	$20.7k	38%	pleaseplease123	74d ago	called
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 75¢	$20.6k	75%	UnRektCapital	78d ago	called
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	LOW BUY Rafael Jodar @ 58¢	$20.0k	58%	Marcoli	73d ago	called
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 60¢	$20.0k	60%	0xf668…5c69	74d ago	missed
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees	LOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 43¢	$19.4k	43%	0x16bb…8492	71d ago	called
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$19.2k	96%	Car	72d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 93.7¢	$18.6k	94%	Tigerofthehood	104d ago	called
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY 100 Thieves @ 46¢	$18.4k	46%	AV23IUa PROVEN	71d ago	missed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.2¢	$18.0k	96%	Chelseaone	73d ago	called
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	LOW BUY Ian Machado Garry @ 25¢	$17.6k	25%	sleepy-panda LOSING	69d ago	missed
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	LOW BUY Rafael Jodar @ 57¢	$17.0k	57%	0x760f…326a	74d ago	called
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$16.9k	96%	LulaVaiPerder	75d ago	called
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	LOW BUY Rafael Jodar @ 55¢	$16.5k	55%	Painfulvoid	74d ago	called
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	MED BUY Yes @ 15¢	$15.7k	15%	KAICENATSUPERFAN NEW	75d ago	called
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢	$15.6k	62%	mr.ozi	86d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢	$15.2k	4%	limetasx	100d ago	missed
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	LOW BUY KT Rolster @ 38¢	$15.1k	38%	StasPanda	75d ago	missed
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 43¢	$15.1k	43%	jtwyslljy	72d ago	missed
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	LOW BUY Rafael Jodar @ 55¢	$15.0k	55%	Marcoli	74d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢	$15.0k	96%	GoriIIa PROVEN	95d ago	called
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY 100 Thieves @ 45¢	$14.9k	45%	papuas	70d ago	missed
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	LOW BUY Ian Machado Garry @ 25¢	$14.8k	25%	razzzzzz	75d ago	missed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$14.5k	92%	0x8b4b…541b PROVEN	74d ago	called
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$14.0k	82%	i400	74d ago	missed
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Under @ 50¢	$13.8k	50%	bluemario	68d ago	missed
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$13.7k	86%	Anjun	75d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D	LOW BUY TheMongolz @ 54¢	$13.5k	54%	thecomplicatedguy	73d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY Vitality @ 72¢	$13.2k	72%	busosuds	72d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢	$13.2k	96%	StudentMoney	101d ago	called
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 43¢	$13.1k	43%	0x3dfb…abaf	71d ago	called
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$13.0k	95%	MissaoComFlavio	75d ago	called
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?	LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢	$13.0k	58%	0x5ad4…6866	72d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY 100 Thieves @ 26¢	$12.9k	26%	0x0954…1e1b	72d ago	missed
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 76¢	$12.8k	76%	lol999	73d ago	called
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	LOW BUY Dplus KIA @ 63¢	$12.6k	63%	MeiGuNiuBi	73d ago	called
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$12.5k	90%	PredictionYogi	74d ago	called
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	LOW BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 39¢	$12.1k	39%	0xb4f9…c9a7	74d ago	called
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$12.0k	79%	LebronJames6769	73d ago	missed
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?	LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢	$11.8k	58%	88M	72d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 94.1¢	$11.6k	94%	aff3 PROVEN	103d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢	$11.5k	96%	HongKongMenace	97d ago	called
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	LOW BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 39¢	$11.5k	39%	0x16bb…8492	74d ago	called
Cincinnati Open: Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	LOW BUY Novak Djokovic @ 77¢	$11.3k	77%	ChallengerSpecialist	69d ago	missed
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$11.1k	85%	CosmicCedar	77d ago	missed
Cincinnati Open: Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	LOW BUY Novak Djokovic @ 79¢	$11.0k	79%	Vladooos	69d ago	missed
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?	LOW BUY No @ 66¢	$10.9k	66%	swisstony PROVEN	68d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Astralis (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B	LOW BUY Astralis @ 54¢	$10.8k	54%	AV23IUa PROVEN	73d ago	called
UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)	LOW BUY Mackenzie Dern @ 64¢	$10.7k	64%	Painfulvoid	71d ago	called
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$10.4k	84%	disputequant	75d ago	missed
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	LOW BUY Rafael Jodar @ 56¢	$10.1k	56%	tennischamp	74d ago	called
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Under @ 50¢	$10.0k	50%	thecomplicatedguy	69d ago	missed

Week 2026-33

By category

Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)

Biggest misses

Every graded flag

The graded brief, free